Is 2019 the Right Time to Buy a House?

We’ve broken down buyer trends for 2019 to help you decide whether or not it’s a good time to for you to buy a house. From questions about interest rates to concerns about another recession, we cut through the noise and outline a practical approach to decide whether or not it’s the right time for you to buy a home.

2019: An Equal Market for Buyers and Sellers

In Portland we saw a 2.4 increase in home prices from 2017 to 2018. While to many, this felt like a big slowdown in the market after five years of astronomical growth, these rates still show an increase in value on top of the huge growth experienced in previous years. What this means for 2019 is a balanced leverage market for buyers and sellers. As realtors, we’re happy to have a balanced market for the first time in years.

How Do Interest Rates Affect Mortgages?

At the end of December the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. The Feds are currently in a “wait and see” stance on interest rates, and as of January 10, 2019 say they plan to hold off on interest rate hikes until at least May. Today’s mortgage interest rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage is 4.75%. This is good news for buyers this year because although interest rates have increased from the historical lows of 2016, they are still very low and are likely to stay that way through April.

It’s important to know that Fed hikes in interest rates do not always cause mortgage rates to increase at the same rate. The fed hike at the end of December caused the ten year treasury yield to tumble, which is what mortgage rates follow. One of our amazing loan officers, Jen Bell, reported that this actually caused an improvement in loan rates. She locked a jumbo loan at 4.5% with no points.

What About a Recession?

Some buyers are scared to get into the market right now. They wonder if it’s a risky market where property prices could go down because of a recession. Oregon historically has had a recession about every nine years, which means we are overdue at this point. Having said that, there are many analysts who think that Portland’s population growth will continue on an upward trend and as a result, real estate values will also continue to follow that trend.

The 2008 financial crisis can provide a blueprint for decision making in 2019. For people who bought at the height of the market in 2007 or early 2008, it took five years to recover the value of their homes and start seeing an increase in the value of their property by early 2013.

We understand buyers’ desires to plan for a worst case scenario, so here’s why it still can make sense to purchase a primary residence now.

Is 2019 a Good Time to Jump Into the Market?

In 2019 we recommend buyers plan to remain in their new homes for at least four years. Ask yourself these questions to help determine if 2019 is the right time for you to buy a home:

• Financially, will I be able to afford to pay a mortgage for four years?
• Is my income stable enough to pay the mortgage for four years in a worst-case scenario recession where my property losses value?
• Are there any changes on the horizon in the next four years – retirement, a new job or a reason I will need to move?
• Am I going to be both a buyer and seller – selling my current home and buying a new, better home for myself and my family?

If you can afford to pay your mortgage and you are not planning on moving for four years, then there’s absolutely no reason to delay in buying a house in the current market.

A delay in purchasing is just a delay in building equity in your house. Although there are many emotional and lifestyle reasons to buy a new home, financially the end goal is building equity in your home. Eventually you can leverage that equity to build an accessory dwelling unit (ADU), finance college education or even purchase an additional investment property. If you are currently renting, then you are paying money for a roof over your head without building equity in your own property.

If you are considering both buying and selling in 2019, again there’s no reason to delay. When you are buying and selling in the same market, you may have more leverage as a buyer and less leverage as a seller, or vice versa, depending on the market. Either way, your leverage will balance out (remember 2019 is shaping up to be an equal market for buyers and sellers). If your goal is to secure a home that is going to be better for you and your family for the next four years, then now is the time to make that move.

On the other hand, if there is uncertainty on your horizon – a job opportunity elsewhere or other life changes that could impact your income – then it’s probably not a good time for you to purchase a new home.

If you have questions about buying or selling your home, please reach out to us! We are happy to discuss your financial situation and goals in depth. Reach us at 503-349-5449 or karianderika@livingroomre.com. 

Erika George & Kari McGee

Broker-Esquire | Principal Broker | Seniors Real Estate Specialists | OR

Meet cousins Erika George and Kari McGee - the highly skilled HouseLovePDX Team at Living Room Realty in Portland, OR. 

Broker Erika George brings to the table 20 years of experience as an attorney specializing in construction and contracts, and 10 incredible years of real estate success stories.  Principal Broker Kari McGee is an 11-year Portland Monthly 5-Star Realtor®  with almost 20 years of real estate experience under her belt. As Seniors Real Estate Specialists (SRES®) we love to put our superpowers to work to help all kinds of folks transition to new chapters with compassion, expert guidance, and a customized plan.

Here are our Top Five Favorite Things to do for you:

1.  Ask you questions (lots of questions!) and actually listen to your answers. 2.  Show out-of-area Buyers all the fun neighborhoods and important spots that make the Portland Metro area special. 3.  Crack you and ourselves up with funny photos and random moments of hilarity that pop up in a day of touring homes or after a long day of listing preparation chores! 4.  Negotiate and advocate strenuously for you and your goals. 5.  Celebrate the many (big and small) milestones in a real estate sale or purchase. 6.  Watch your life grow and change after the sale closes, and be there for you when you need us. ps - oh how we adore your "look at what we did to this house" photos!  And lunch. We also adore lunching with you.  (Yes, we know, that's two in one and we're already at six...). 7.  Make "Top-Five" lists that always have more than 5 top-fives.  Just goes to show you how much we love to exceed your expectations! We would be honored to help guide you through your changing real estate needs in Portland Oregon. CONTACT Erika George and Kari McGee 503.349.5449 | 971.322.6612 Team@HouseLovePDX.com www.houselovepdx.com  

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