By Matt Guy, June 21, 2023
What is the Temperature!?!?
Welcome to summer!! The kids are out of school, the weather is heating up! It’s time to grab the sunscreen and head for vacation!!
But in the real estate world, summer is where things actually begin to cool, from the high water mark of activity that is spring. But this year is proving to be anything but normal, again, and it feels like this year, with summer starting, the market is just starting to heat up, and with our steady spring of real estate action, we are moving into a hot summer!!
This is all due to inflation cooling (yay!! finally!!), and rates begining to stabilize, normalize, and most importantly, become more predictable.
So let’s delve into the numbers for meaning, and to find the trends, but beware this is a stats heavy read.
Inventory for May 2023, the latest month that we have information from, held steady from April ‘23, at 1.9 months of inventory – the amount of time it takes to sell all the homes currently on the market. This is about double from May of 2022, at 1 month of inventory, and a little more than May of ‘21, at .7 months of inventory (Crazy!!! Selling all the homes on the market in 3 weeks!!!). But as we know, those were uncommonly crazy times, coming out of COVID, and with rates at around 3%, goes to show just how hot that market was.
Another snapshot of years past for the Portland metro market, shows that the inventory on the market has been selling pretty quickly for a while. In 2018, 2019, and even into the pandemic of 2020, for the month of May of those years, they each had 1.7, 1.9, and 2.2 months of inventory respectively.
To give a little context there was 3,261 homes actively on the market at the end of May this year, 2,526 in May of 2022, 2,252 in 2021, 4,118 in 2020, 5,552 in 2019, 4,667 in 2018, 3,833 in 2017, and 3,526 in 2017.
That is a lot of numbers, and maybe a table would have been better to look at, but the point is, I think all of those years were good, competitive years in the Portland real estate market. And, we are near half of the homes on the market just 4 years ago.
For another comparison, if we look at the market just to last year, in May of 2022 against May of 2023, new listings (new homes for sale coming to the market, different then months of inventory, as it doesn’t incorporate the rate of the homes going pending, or how quickly they are selling) are down 16% from last year, and pending sales are down 24% (!!!!) from this time last year!!!
But the median sales price is only down just over 4% from May of 2022, and the market time, days a home takes to sell, was up 22 days on average from a year ago, the end of the very low interest rates.
But as I was mentioning, I see the summer getting hot, and if we look at May this year versus April 2023, market time is down by 7 days, new listings are up by 22%, pendings sales up by 10%, and median prices up just under 4%!!!
Plus, what I have been seeing with boots on the ground, is showing the market is recovering from the rate increases of last fall. I had a client write on a home listed at $1.2 million in the Irvington neighborhood, that received 7 offers, and went 13% over asking price. I also had a listing in the Montavilla area that sold after one weekend, at about 10% above asking price. Finally, I had a buyer put an offer on a house near Multnomah Village, and that home received 3 offers, and sold about 4% above the asking price.
So what does this all mean? I think I go back to my first point in the introduction, it feels like the market is heating up, that inventory is down, but rates and inflation are stabilizing, and sales are happening.
It is still a great time to be a buyer, as there are some great homes out there, and with rates stabilizing there is even more incentive.
And it is also a great time to be a seller, as there is a lot of pent up demand and well-qualified buyers coming back to the market from the cooling of last fall’s rate increases, and with inventory low, sellers can take advantage of a competitive market.
If you would like to learn more about your home, or neighborhood, give us a call, and we would love to answer any questions.
Matt Guy
Principal Broker | OR
Professional Service:
Finding an agent you are comfortable with is similar to, and as important, as your connection with a good attorney, accountant or financial adviser. It is my goal to help you make the best, informed decision regarding your real estate needs. Whether it is with a Buyer or a Seller, I enjoy working to help people achieve their goals. Communication is a very important aspect throughout the home buying and selling process, and I hope you find that I treat my clients with respect and show them the hard work and ethical standards that I use in my everyday practice. I enjoy working through the complexities of the transaction and have the ability to solve problems when they arise, and thrive on my ability to handle the details of a real estate transaction with professionalism, integrity and care. Like selling or buying a home, first impressions are paramount to the success of obtaining a sale. I hope that you find my professional image shines through, and that my over 18 years of real estate experience, knowledge and energy will be helpful and refreshing, as have many of my clients who have rewarded me through their repeated use and referrals.Love of Portland:
I work throughout the Portland Metro Area, and have lived on both the East and West sides of Portland. I am very excited to live in a city with so many beautiful homes and neighborhoods. I also love Oregon and am proud to be a life long Oregonian. I have moved back to neighborhood that my Father spent his childhood and am proud to share in the history where I live. I live 8 blocks from the church where my Aunt and Uncle were married in 1956. I also love the many activities and restaurants around Portland and the nearby outdoors that it has to offer. Whether shopping at New Seasons or a farmers market, enjoying the many great parks, Portland has a great progressive and environmental spirit that helps to make it such a wonderful place to live.More to me than real estate:
I am a former competitive Ultimate Frisbee player, and over the past few years have competed in marathons, triathlons, and other running events like the Hood to Coast. I have raised over $3000 for the Windermere Foundation through pledges from my family, friends and clients while running two Eugene Marathons. Also in 2011, I ran the New York City Marathon. In my spare time I enjoy running, hiking, playing soccer, Ultimate, and basketball. Basically, I like being active. I guess I need to, to keep up with my two amazing children, Elliott & Nao.Qualifications:
- Real Estate Broker since 2004.
- Managing Principal Broker - Living Room Realty - 2018 to 2019
- Branch Manager of the Windermere West Linn office from 2011 to 2013.
- Assistant Manager of the Windermere Lloyd Tower office from 2008 to 2011
- Leadership coaching and training through Windermere.
- Earth Advantage S.T.A.R. Green Certified Broker.
- I have a background in construction, customer service and management, and bring this knowledge to my real estate career.
- I am a graduate of the University of Oregon with a degree in English and minor in Chemistry.
- T: 503-939-8097
- matt@livingroomre.com
