Is a Cool Down Coming?

Hi, Readers!

We’re on the cusp of what I believe to be the best season – autumn. Coming off a hot hot hot summer, this one will be welcome for a few reasons. One big one is that the market is indicating a shift and is starting to feel a little more “normal.”* By that I mean we are seeing properties spending more time on market and price adjustments happening with increased frequency. The fatigued buyer base took a step back, meanwhile sellers took a step forward. I’m seeing more inventory on the Portland market than I have in months. Thank you Baby Jesus! It’ll be interesting to see what the inventory levels report for this month and next.

What’s this mean for the fall market? In short – it’s still going to be nuts. Every July we experience a noticeable market slowdown: vacations happen, families get ready for back to school and people don’t want to move in September — just too much going on. The watercooler talk around my brokerage’s table landed on most of us gearing up for a very busy fall and winter after a short respite. Interest rates continue to be incredible, and chances are there will be some leftover inventory with motivated sellers looking to unload their listing. That gives buyers opportunity to negotiate in price, since that’s most often what’s holding property from selling in the first place.

For you data wonks out there, HERE is a quick real-time look at the Portland market, and HERE is what the RMLS data shows. Reach out if you want to go over anything in greater detail. Here for you!

Till then, high fives,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The market hasn’t been “normal” as long as I’ve been in real estate.

To every season turn , turn, turn . . . .

Chris, Nicole and five year-old Alma came to us last Spring with fresh enthusiasm as first-time home buyers. Having rented for many years in a home and neighborhood they loved, they had never been super motivated to buy. They had also been intimated by the stories of the “cut throat” sellers’ market of prior years. But, with the start of elementary school for Alma “right around the bend,” they thought the timing was right to make the plunge into home ownership. Unfortunately, despite all of the talk of a cooling market, they found competition at every turn. Turns out they have GREAT taste in homes — they seemed to like the same houses that everyone else did!

Their Summer disappointments were “not for nothing” however. They learned to evaluate their priorities, readjust their expectations, and became experts at acting quickly when a house peaked their interest. We had a feeling that Fall would be the sweet spot for them in terms of timing. With Alma enrolled in Kindergarten at a K-8 school they loved, they could open up their location parameters to include other adjacent neighborhoods with less desirable schools. Moreover, even though there is usually less inventory in the Fall/Winter months, there are usually less active buyers as well, and sellers who weren’t able to sell in the summer are motivated!

In mid-October, we leaned that this DARLING Rose City Park home was going on the market. It was perfect for Chris, Nicole and Alma in all ways — right layout, lovely yard, excellent condition AND in their dream neighborhood. It was literally around the corner from their rental house. They toured it as soon as it hit the market and made an offer right away. Once again, there were multiple offers, but with their summer experience under their belt, Chris and Nicole decisively made the terms of their offer very attractive and wrote a kick-ass letter to the seller about their connection to the neighborhood and what they loved about the house. They stretched their comfort zone in calculated/low risk ways. Their were tears around (realtors included) when we got the word the house was theirs.

Nicole and Alma received the keys to their new home last week. (Chris was at work!) Alma quickly made the house their “home” by placing her artwork on the refrigerator. It was a joyous day indeed, and, while moving during the holidays is less than ideal, their willingness to wait for the right season earned them the house of their dreams!

Congratulations Nicole, Chris and Alma — it was a pleasure guiding you through the seasons!

Pro Tip: Is Real Estate in Portland a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

Portland’s real estate market has been known to escalate into red-hot periods of competition for buyers. With homes earning upwards of 15 offers during peak times, many prospective homeowners have been eager for a market slowdown. With fewer homes on the market, can we expect another sizzling stretch, or will Portland finally experience a cooling period?

 

UNDERSTANDING A SELLER’S MARKET

In a market where demand is larger than supply, sellers ultimately yield more power in real estate transactions. In these markets, buyers end up spending more for the homes they want, and multiple offers can drive home prices on a regional scale.

 

UNDERSTANDING A BUYER’S MARKET

When the coin is flipped, an over-supply of listed homes reduces the scope of competing offers, granting more control to the buyer-side of the real estate market. Sellers may have to take on restorative or staging measures to entice buyers, and buyers have the power to underbid on properties.

 

IS PORTLAND A BUYER’S OR SELLER’S MARKET?

In May 2018, Portland homes sold in an average of 37 days from listing to close, indicating a high degree of demand for properties in Portland. Average home prices also reflect this level of demand, as median home prices have increased 5.4% over the previous year. These metrics would suggest that the scales favor sellers; however, price growth has also slowed city-wide.

Rising mortgage rates may also be a contributing factor to a cooling market, but buyer’s don’t have the upper hand just yet. First-time home buyers are particularly sensitive to current marketplace trends, considering homes priced under $400,000 are significantly more competitive than more expensive properties.

 

PRO TIP: HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE MARKETS

More than any other factor, a lack of inventory seems to be the biggest influencer in determining a buyer’s or seller’s market. Oregon Live defines a balanced market as one where home inventory turnover spans approximately six-months. With only enough real estate supply to span two-months, Portland falls far below that benchmark – a dynamic that will continue to drive home prices upward in Portland.

Given the drop in the market, both sellers and prospective buyers will need to be intentional in their realty strategy. Sellers should be aware of being aggressive in marketing their homes, as pricing their homes too high many backfire in a slowed market. Buyers should monitor inventory, starting their search during periods of higher home supply to reduce the likelihood of bidding wars. This is especially prevalent in fast-growing cities such as Portland. A buyer’s or seller’s market can have major ramifications on housing transactions, so it’s important to have a thorough understanding of market trends. For more insight into the Portland realty market, contact your local real estate mavens, Aryne + Dulcinea!

 

About Us:
Over the course of their professional partnership, Aryne + Dulcinea have helped over 200 clients prosper in their new lives. During this time, they have prided themselves in their top-notch selling abilities, with homes outperforming market standards, consistently exceeding list price while most of their listings sell in under 7 days. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, Aryne & Dulcinea will work in collaboration to guide you in investing in your future and reaching your real estate goals.