“Is this a good time to buy a house?”

“Is it a good time to buy a house?”

People always wonder when is the best time to buy a house. Many considerations go into answering this question – for example: 

  • Are mortgage rates favorable? Are they likely to go up or down? 
  • Are house prices likely to go up or down in the area in the near future?
  • How much inventory is on the market in the area where I want to buy?
  • Is the real estate market cyclical in the area where I want to buy?

All of these questions are important, and you can find many discussions of each of these questions with a quick Google search. I’ve put some thoughts below from my perspective as a real estate agent in Portland. 

Where are mortgage rates likely to go?

Mortgage rates have improved since last year’s high of 7.9% (October 2023), and many people seem to think that they will continue falling slowly. Mortgage rates are generally influenced by the Federal Reserve, but also by rates of economic growth and inflation. Beginning in early 2022, with inflation concerns high, the Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate (basically, the rate at which banks can borrow from each other), partially in an effort to curb inflation. This has contributed to rising mortgage rates. It’s hard for anyone to say exactly where mortgage rates will go in the future, because it depends both on how the economy in general does, and how the Federal Reserve reacts to concerns about inflation. 

It’s helpful to remember that the extremely low mortgage rates we’ve seen since the Great Recession are somewhat of a historical anomaly. In the mid 1990’s, the federal funds rate was around the same level as it is now. Beginning in mid-2000, and continuing after the 9/11 attacks, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate drastically, culminating in a low of 1% in March 2004, in an effort to boost the economy. As the economy sped back up after that point, partially due to rampant subprime mortgage lending, the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate back up to around where it is now, and then after the subprime mortgage bubble collapsed in late 2007, resulting in the “Great Recession,” the Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of lowering the federal funds rate almost to zero, where it stayed until it gradually began to increase in 2015. 

When COVID hit, the Federal Reserve lowered the rate back down to zero, where it stayed until the Federal Reserve started increasing it in March 2022 in response to inflation concerns. This increase has leveled off at the current rate of 5.33%, and it is unknown where the Federal Reserve will go from here. All of this is really to say that where mortgage rates are going to go is difficult to predict even for financial geniuses. What’s less difficult to predict is the fact that we all need a roof over our heads. Also helpful in thinking about mortgage rates is that, if you get a mortgage, it’s going to stay the same unless you re-finance. So if mortgage rates go lower, you may have the option of taking advantage of those lower rates and re-financing later, and if they go higher, you are insulated from that increase because you already have a mortgage.

What about home prices? 

Home prices are influenced not only by what mortgage rates are doing, but also by the housing inventory levels in your area. It’s a supply and demand thing. Stated simply, if mortgage rates are high and inventory is high, prices may decrease; but prices trend higher when demand increases and supply decreases. The housing inventory in the Portland metropolitan area has recently increased slightly from historically low levels, but is still low. More inventory can mean less competition for houses resulting in a market is more neutral or buyer-friendly, but because people who already have mortgages locked in at the historically low rates of 2020-21 may not yet be incentivized to make a move unless we see further decreases, the inventory has remained low, and prices haven’t seen much decline. 

Is the Portland area real estate market cyclical? 

The short answer is yes. Like everything else, the real estate market tends to lull during the holidays, then begin to ramp back up heading into February. This is especially true in Portland, because people generally don’t like to move here in the rainy season. The Portland market generally reaches its peak around April to June, and stays at a higher volume until August, when it gradually tapers down over the next few months. In the summer, you’ll potentially have more competition but more options. In the winter, you will likely have less competition but fewer home options. I would like to note here that while having more choice and looking at pretty gardens is fun, inspecting basements during the rainy season in Portland is an advantage not many consider, and they should. 

So when should I buy?

While everything I explained above is important, at the end of the day the most important questions are very personal: why do YOU want to buy a house, and when does it make sense for YOU? If you currently have a great mortgage and would like to have a bigger house, maybe it’s not the best time financially, but maybe you have a growing family and you need the space. In that case, you need to decide how much it’s worth to you to get the right house for your family. If you are a cash buyer, now might be a great time to buy a house, because you won’t have so much competition, and you might get a great price on a very desirable house. If you’re looking to move out of a rental and into home ownership, and are financially flexible, it also might make sense to buy now. Because so much of it depends on each individual’s situation, consulting a buyer’s agent is key. 

A buyer’s agent can help educate you so you can make the best decision for you and your family. After speaking with a great agent, you should feel more empowered, because you will understand all of these factors better. If the first thing an agent tells you when you speak to them is that it’s a great time to buy a house, without knowing anything about you, you might want to ask them why it’s a great time for you to buy a house, or find another agent. 

 

If you are thinking about buying a house sometime in the future and are not sure whether to act now or wait for a little while, you can always take steps so you can make sure you’re ready when you feel the time is right. Check out my post about all the steps you can take now to be ready to put an offer on a house when it’s time! 

 

Beaumont-Wilshire Charmer

You’ll just love this beautiful 1938, 4 bedroom 3 bath home is loaded with charming, vintage details, many of which are newer, but crafted to match the era of the home. On the main level you have a large, light filled living room with gorgeous period fireplace with gas insert, updated kitchen and bath that were both redone to uphold the wonderful vintage styling of the home and two bedrooms, both with access to the backyard deck and delightful backyard. 

The upper level features the fantastic primary suite with hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings, built ins, skylights and bathroom.

The lower level has access from the main floor or outside which lends to the potential for a lower level ADU. Warm and inviting family or media room, 4th bedroom with egress, laundry facilities and lots of storage. 

The home sits on an oversized 75 x 100 lot which may offer room to build. Comes with an enormous three-car garage with attached garden shed, a lovely fenced backyard with both deck and patio, a rose garden and mature trees. 

Recent updates include, new south side Marvin infinity double hung, lowE2 efficient windows with transferable warranty, new electrical service and panels for both the home (200 amp) and garage (100 amp), attic insulation and new backyard fencing.

The sweet neighborhood is quiet and full of lovely neighbors. It’s situated between the Albert Arts district and up and coming 42nd Ave. And just a short distance from Fremont St and all that has to offer. Plus it’s just short walk to the infamous Kennedy School, Common Grounds and New Seasons grocery. 

Why don’t my roses smell good?

Portland is full of roses at this time of year! Have you purchased a home with roses in the yard but now you find that they don’t have that beautiful rosy fragrance??  You’re not crazy- some roses have strong fragrances, while some don’t.  In this short post, I’ll try to set your garden on the path to fragrance wonderland.

Jude The Obscure, bred by David Austin Roses: my favorite for fragrance and the whole reason I started growing roses!

As you visit local rose gardens, or your own yard, and rose fragrance is lackluster, you are not alone. Home gardeners choose roses based upon the features that are important to them, just like we do with houses.  While some home buyers may want a 2 car garage, some may not care at all.  Similarly, the previous owner may have chosen roses for qualities they prefer. These can include thornless, shape, color, hardiness…  not always fragrance.

Even within the subject of ‘fragrance’, you’ll find different types.  Myrrh, Old Rose, Tea, Fruit and Musk are typically the five different categories of fragrance.  The best way to determine what you like is, of course, to smell some roses, and take note!

The very first rose that I fell in love with was along a sidewalk where I frequently walked.  It smelled so good, people would stop and smell them, and remark upon it.  Finally I ran into the home owner, and they shared the name of the rose with me.  It was Jude the Obscure, bred by English breeder David Austin.  This started a pandemic-era deep dive into roses.   There was a time when I didn’t want to plant anything prickly in my garden, but these roses won me over. They’re worth it.

 

 

 

Princess Charlene de Monaco: ruffly petals, long stems great for bouquets and a lovely rose fragrance.

Want inspiration?

I’ve added a few photos below of a few of my favorite fragrant roses!  And guess what?  Many modern roses are bred to be very easy to grow.  With a a few simple tips you will be a success: most roses prefer at least 6 hours per day of sunlight, and an occasional deep watering once established.   Also, most rose farms and growers will offer resources to help your success right on their website.

A good few good resources are:  Heirloom Roses, Menagerie Flower Farm and David Austin Roses.  If you’re into flowers, you’ll want to know about Floret Flower Farm too, although they don’t sell roses, they have amazing resource pages, including blogs about roses.

 

 

When to buy roses

You’ll find the best selection of roses at your local nursery in the spring. Springtime, after chance of frost has passed, but before roses have put out their new growth is the best time to plant and let your plant get established before the hot months of summer.   Now is the perfect time to check out other gardens, do some research and pick your favorites for planting next spring.  Fall is also a good time to plant, at least 6 weeks before frost, to allow a new plant to get established before winter.

Wishing you a good Portland rose season- and some good bouquets from your future roses.

 

Step-by-Step Guide to Making an Offer on a House in Portland, Oregon

Want to buy a house in Portland, Oregon? Here is your step-by-step guide to making an offer on a house! 

In home buying as in everything else, knowledge is power. The following list of steps is intended as a step-by-step guide to what YOU can do to best prepare yourself for making an offer on a house and making one of the most important purchases for your family and your life.

  1. These first two steps are fun, and you can start doing them and continue as you’re answering the harder questions which follow:
    1. Start perusing online real estate listings as soon as you can, but with the idea that you are not necessarily looking for the house you want to buy, but rather just educating yourself about what’s out there. Look at lots and lots of houses and decide what excites you and what doesn’t. Do you like older houses? New construction? One or two (or more) floors? A finished basement? How important is a yard to you, and what do you want to do in the yard? How many bedrooms and bathrooms? You can also go to open houses. 
    2. Also, start frequenting the neighborhoods you’re interested in. If you want to buy a house in the neighborhood where you already live, you’ll do this naturally, but if, for example, you live on the west side of Portland and are interested in moving to the east, start walking around the eastside and getting to know the various districts, so you can get a feeling for where you might like to put down roots.
  2. Identify the reason you want to buy a house. Is it because you want a place to live and raise a family over the long term? Is it because you want an investment? Do some soul searching, figure out your true objectives in buying a house and let that objective guide you in all the next steps. For example, if you’re looking for a place to raise a family, whether or not a particular house will rapidly appreciate in value (or even appreciate at all) may not be as much of a concern as if you are looking for a house as an investment. 
  3. Identify whether you have any time pressures. Is your lease ending soon? Do you have a good opportunity to sell your current house? What are the current mortgage rates, and how might that affect your ability to get into the house you want? For most people, buying a house is one of the most significant investments of their lives. You should look at tons of houses, all kinds of houses, and really figure out what kind of house you like, so you can make the best of this very important decision.
  4. Identify whether this is the right time to buy a house for you. Answering this question really depends on your particular situation. In a market where interest rates are high, buyers who need to rely on financing for most of their purchase price may want to take a hard look at whether it is really the best time for them. At the same time, since so many people will be thinking the same thing, there may be less competition in a high-rate environment, so it may be easier to compete for the home you really want. And in a high-rate environment, cash buyers sometimes have great opportunities, for the same reason.
  5. Identify whether you need a house that’s in perfect condition and needs no improvements, or whether you have appetite for somewhat of a fixer. If you’re handy, being open to a house that needs some work may open up some possibilities that you might otherwise not have.
  6. Now make a list of wants and needs. Figure out what items are negotiable, and which are not. These may change over time, but it’s helpful to write this stuff down to organize your search. Be sure to share this list with your buyer’s agent!
  7. Now it’s time to talk to a mortgage broker. While some people like to stick with the banking relationship they may have developed over a long period of time and get a mortgage directly from their bank, I generally recommend that people at least talk to a mortgage broker. Banks have the mortgage products they have, and bank employees don’t have much choice but to offer you those products, whatever they may be. In contrast, because mortgage brokers get paid by connecting people with lenders, mortgage brokers have a huge incentive to ferret out the best deals, and the best brokers will really spend some time with you to understand your particular financial situation and real estate objectives and find the best mortgage product for you.
  8. Once you have talked to a mortgage broker, you will understand how much house you can afford, and what your range of purchase prices may be. Keep in mind that the purchase price of a house is only the starting point of how much the house will cost you – there may also be:
    1. Mortgage insurance (usually applicable if you put less than 20% down);
    2. Homeowners insurance;
    3. Property tax; and
    4. Utilities (water, sewer, garbage, gas, electric, etc).
  9. Additional potential expenses: 
    1. Repairs and Maintenance. As you figure out how much house you can afford, keep in mind that you may need to budget for more than just monthly expenses. You should understand how much of a short term budget you have for both routine maintenance and necessary major repairs. What if you end up buying a house that will need a new roof in the next five years? What if the furnace breaks down? Thinking about these potential expenses, and understanding what cash you’ll have available to pay them, will help a lot when you find a house you want to make an offer on.
    2. Other. Some houses have features that are great but cost money. Be aware.
      1. Homeowners Association Fees (can be a major cost);
      2. Pool and hot tub maintenance;
      3. Fireplaces and chimney cleaning;
      4. Etc.
  10. Now it’s time to look at houses FOR YOU, but it’s also time decide whether you want to work with a real estate agent. Buyer’s agents are a dime a dozen on the internet; the trick is to pick the right one. There are many factors to consider, and I will write about this in another post, but, in a nutshell, you should first try to get referrals from friends you respect and who seem to “have it together.” If someone you trust had a great experience with an agent and got a house they love, you probably want to talk to that agent. Remember, this is one of the most significant purchases you may ever make, and you want to find someone who respects that and brings that perspective and sense of importance to helping you. That may not be the person who has spent the most money on making sure they appear first in Google searches. Then you should interview at least three or four agents before deciding. And once you pick one, remember, you’re not locked in to your buyer’s agent. If you hire someone and they’re not working out or you are losing confidence in them, you can almost always terminate the relationship and find someone else. Don’t worry about hurt feelings – we are professionals, and what we want (or should want) is for you to have confidence in the services you’re getting from us. If you don’t have that confidence, you should find someone who you click with better. This is our job, but it’s your life.
  11. Look at houses. Lots of houses! In the beginning, try to cast as wide a net as possible, and look at a ton of different houses in a ton of different neighborhoods. You may think, going into the search, that you know what you want in a house and where you want to live, but you may change your mind after seeing what’s out there. 
  12. DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH A HOUSE (it’s easy to do!). This process is going to be full of emotional ups and downs. If you’re in a competitive market (and Portland is very competitive), it’s likely that you will be facing competing offers for the house you decide on. You may lose that competition, and it may happen multiple times. It is so easy to look at a bunch of beautiful house pictures on real estate websites and imagine yourself so happy living in one, and then be so disappointed when it doesn’t happen. But even more importantly, see if you can put some emotional distance between you and your house search process. Now that you’ve done the work of answering questions about what kind of house you want, why you want to buy, why it’s the right time for you to buy, and how much you can afford, you should be somewhat dispassionate about evaluating houses objectively to determine whether they fit your criteria. Honestly, this is a big reason people hire professionals to represent them – the professionals represent YOUR INTERESTS. Lawyers have a saying: “a person who is their own lawyer has a fool for a client” – meaning that it’s extremely helpful to rely on a professional who can bring their expertise to bear for your benefit, without any emotional entanglement or personal interest. The same thing is true for real estate agents.
  13. When you’re looking at houses, remember to find out how much the expenses of that house truly are. What are the monthly taxes and approximate cost of  utilities? Look at the condition of the roof and the basement. Determine whether any major repairs will be due, or if you’re going to have to do some remodeling to have the house you want. A good agent should be able to help you get accurate answers to these types of questions.
  14. When you find a house that you want to buy, figure out what offer you can afford to make that will make the seller choose to accept your offer. Trusting your agent to gauge potential competition, tell you if the home is well priced, and to communicate with the listing agent to help you assess what a strong offer would be, is crucial. Knowing you can listen to your agent’s recommendations to put your best foot forward is how you get the house. Understand that after your offer is accepted, you will have an opportunity to get a professional home inspection done of the house, and if you don’t like what it reveals, you can terminate the transaction and move on, no harm no foul. In fact there are many protections for buyers in the standard Oregon sale agreements I will write about in a future post!
  15. Before you make the offer and do a formal home inspection, there are a few things you can do to “kick the tires,” such as:
    1. Does the house have a basement? Check it out in rainy weather to see if it’s leaking. Also check out the yard to see how it’s draining.
    2. How is the water pressure in the house? How is the water pressure with all of the taps open and the toilet flushing?
    3. Are there trees near the house? I love trees! Trees are great! However! If they are deciduous trees, you could be paying someone each year to clean your gutters. The roots could damage the foundation. And if you currently live in Portland, you’ve seen the damage falling trees can cause in ice storms. Tl/dr: trees = good, but be aware.
    4. Look for squeaky floors; make sure the floors are level.
    5. Look for signs of leaks around water fixtures, sinks, toilets, tubs and showers.
    6. Check out how old and how clean the appliances are. Would you be happy using them for the foreseeable future, or will you want to buy new ones? If so, make sure you understand the cost of what you want to put in.

If you’ve done everything listed above and are satisfied that you would be comfortable assuming ownership of the house, and understand the costs involved, go ahead and make an offer! A great real estate agent can help you get through these steps, will guide you through the transaction once your offer is accepted, and will help you get to the finish line and into your new Living Room. 

Sellwood Endless Summer in this Spectacular Townhome

Sellwood summer fun out the door in this charming neighborhood. Make every weekend a great weekend in this newer construction townhome. Your morning walk can be the Springwater Corridor, beloved shops and antique stores as neighbors, the *best* coffee and bakeries, restaurants, bike paths, river trails, golfing, Oaks Park, gardens and more, oh my! Bike score 96!

A Backyard habitat certification is underway in the shared garden and chill zone out back. Well-run HOA covers water/sewer and exterior. New washer and dryer convey. Incredibly functional floorplan – this home has welcomed a first time home buyer with roommates, renters with a new baby, and has a healthy rental history. Last year’s lease generated nearly $4,000 per month. Try finding a single family home of this quality under $600K in this neighborhood…

default

default


Seller to pay HOA for the rest of 2024! Come see! Open Saturday June 1st, 3 – 5 and Sunday June 2nd, 1 – 3.

Restore Oregon Modernism Tours

Restore Oregon Modernism preservation program will open doors to iconic midcentury modern dwellings such as the late architect Joachim Grube’s private residence in April, followed over the year by a tour of builder Robert Rummer’s atrium-centered houses as well as other educational events, presentations and parties.

Although many old buildings have been demolished over time, “it is inspiring to know that people love midcentury modern homes enough to save them,” said Nicole Possert, Restore Oregon executive director.

Buildings constructed before 1974 are considered historic and are part of the statewide nonprofit organization’s mission to preserve them and help owners repurpose them to benefit the community.

One of Restore Oregon Modernism’s events will be held in the renovated 1962 Postal Employees Credit Union, designed in the sleek International style in Southeast Portland.

On May 13, Restore Oregon Modernism will have a tour of midcentury modern houses in Southwest Portland modeled after prolific developer Joseph Eichler’s Case Study-inspired homes in California and built by Robert Rummer, now 95.

“Rummers,” with walls of glass that rise to vaulted ceilings and frame the outdoors, are more popular than ever and rarely on the market since many owners appreciate the flexible, single-level layouts and stay put, according to real estate professionals who specialize in modern dwellings.

Ticket holders ($50) can see four dwellings in the Bohmann Park tract, including the personal residence Rummer built for himself.

On Aug. 18, Restore Oregon Modernism will host a reception at the Oregon Historical Society’s Pietro Belluschi Architectural Resource Center in celebration of the late architect’s birthday and the new center (no ticket required).

And on Oct.14, Restore Oregon supporters can tour Living Room Realty’s headquarters in Southeast Portland, formerly the Postal Employees Credit Union and used for decades as an office for Multnomah County’s corrections department.

The thoughtful renovation of the 1962 building by Portland-based SUM Design Studio + Architecture received Restore Oregon’s 2021 DeMuro Award for Excellence in Historic Preservation.

The event will include a talk by Eric Hoffman of SUM and a presentation by historic building photographer Sally Painter. Tickets are $25.

Restore Oregon, a historic preservation organization founded in 1977, has been hosting tours of Oregon’s best modernism architecture and architects for 10 years.

This year, the organization launched Restore Oregon’s Modernist Society. Members donate $250 a year to support the nonprofit’s work saving historic places and are invited to private and public events.

Restore Oregon Modernism also raises funds for small nonprofits to save and repurpose historic places and spaces.

Read the full article by Janet Eastman at hereisoregon.com.

Tulips, as far as the eye can see.

This Spring is a bit of a late bloomer.

While the constant showers and cloudy Pacific Northwest weather persist, you can catch a glimpse of Spring at the Wooden Shoe Tulip Festival. This fabulous annual event has been running for 39 years, and my family and I have been happy attendees for the last 30. Here’s a throwback photo to one of our first trips.

Cheri Harney and her daughters at the tulip festival in the early 1990s.

This year, the festival runs from March 24 through April 30. With rows upon rows of blooming tulips, it’s a must-see attraction in Oregon.

Be sure to grab your tickets online before planning your trip. And check the bloom status field report to see which tulips are flowering. Since the weather has been a bit chilly, the field is a bit behind schedule. While there are currently tulips blooming, the best time to visit will probably be in mid-April.

Be sure to bring your kiddos and explore the family activities, food, and flowers for sale. While you can get fresh bouquets, you can also order some bulbs to grow at home.

Take a page out of my family’s book and embrace the Spring feeling with a trip to the Wooden Shoe Tulip Festival.

 

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Interested in making Portland your home?

Call Cheri Harney, at 503-319-4858.

Keys for Baby

I met Emily over the summer at a birthday Pedal Lounge party. Despite being very pregnant, Emily cycled like a pro. A few weeks later I heard from Emily’s parents, Kathleen and Greg, who were in town visiting from Colorado and excitedly awaiting the birth of their first grand baby.

The call of the Pacific Northwest.

The lifestyle that brings young families to the Pacific Northwest is also attractive to retirees. In real estate world, we see a lot of grandparents move across the country so they can spend time with their children and grandchildren, and celebrate their retirement years in the beautiful Pacific Northwest.

This was case for the Kathleen and Greg. One of their sons, Ian, wanted to invest in Portland real estate and Kathleen was planning to be the infant daycare plan for Emily’s baby. The goal was to find a house by they time Emily’s maternity leave was over.

Welcoming baby home.

Fast forward a bit, and a beautiful baby was born. As October rolled around, it was time for Emily to return to work. I spent two marathon days touring with Ian and Kathleen. The first house I showed them was the one! Don’t worry, I showed them 10 more just to prove that first house was perfect.

 

Interested in making Portland your home? Call Cheri Harney, at 503-319-4858.

Making the move to Oregon

There’s a lot to love about Oregon, and that is why people make the move here. There’s just something in the air, about the trees, and the overall vibe of the Pacific Northwest. I relocated to Oregon 15 years ago and since I began my career in real estate, most of the people I work with are people I’ve just met. Many of them are relocating to Oregon just like I did. It’s not often I get a call from an old friend out of state planning on making a move to the pacific northwest. I had the pleasure of helping this great family relocating from the bay area to Portland.  Some of things on their list were all the “bonuses” that I had on mine: privacy, trees, nice outdoor living space, a place for an ADU, high ceilings. Well, we found those things and I couldn’t be happier for their new adventure in the Pacific Northwest.

I think most people find their way to Oregon for a little more space, the fresh air, and our beautiful landscape. If you’re thinking about relocating to the Pacific Northwest, let’s connect! I’d love to help you make a move to Oregon or Washington.

JULIA ROBERTSON | Broker licensed in Oregon & Washington

541-505-1111 | julia@rebyjulia.com