“Is this a good time to buy a house?”

“Is it a good time to buy a house?”

People always wonder when is the best time to buy a house. Many considerations go into answering this question – for example: 

  • Are mortgage rates favorable? Are they likely to go up or down? 
  • Are house prices likely to go up or down in the area in the near future?
  • How much inventory is on the market in the area where I want to buy?
  • Is the real estate market cyclical in the area where I want to buy?

All of these questions are important, and you can find many discussions of each of these questions with a quick Google search. I’ve put some thoughts below from my perspective as a real estate agent in Portland. 

Where are mortgage rates likely to go?

Mortgage rates have improved since last year’s high of 7.9% (October 2023), and many people seem to think that they will continue falling slowly. Mortgage rates are generally influenced by the Federal Reserve, but also by rates of economic growth and inflation. Beginning in early 2022, with inflation concerns high, the Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate (basically, the rate at which banks can borrow from each other), partially in an effort to curb inflation. This has contributed to rising mortgage rates. It’s hard for anyone to say exactly where mortgage rates will go in the future, because it depends both on how the economy in general does, and how the Federal Reserve reacts to concerns about inflation. 

It’s helpful to remember that the extremely low mortgage rates we’ve seen since the Great Recession are somewhat of a historical anomaly. In the mid 1990’s, the federal funds rate was around the same level as it is now. Beginning in mid-2000, and continuing after the 9/11 attacks, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate drastically, culminating in a low of 1% in March 2004, in an effort to boost the economy. As the economy sped back up after that point, partially due to rampant subprime mortgage lending, the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate back up to around where it is now, and then after the subprime mortgage bubble collapsed in late 2007, resulting in the “Great Recession,” the Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of lowering the federal funds rate almost to zero, where it stayed until it gradually began to increase in 2015. 

When COVID hit, the Federal Reserve lowered the rate back down to zero, where it stayed until the Federal Reserve started increasing it in March 2022 in response to inflation concerns. This increase has leveled off at the current rate of 5.33%, and it is unknown where the Federal Reserve will go from here. All of this is really to say that where mortgage rates are going to go is difficult to predict even for financial geniuses. What’s less difficult to predict is the fact that we all need a roof over our heads. Also helpful in thinking about mortgage rates is that, if you get a mortgage, it’s going to stay the same unless you re-finance. So if mortgage rates go lower, you may have the option of taking advantage of those lower rates and re-financing later, and if they go higher, you are insulated from that increase because you already have a mortgage.

What about home prices? 

Home prices are influenced not only by what mortgage rates are doing, but also by the housing inventory levels in your area. It’s a supply and demand thing. Stated simply, if mortgage rates are high and inventory is high, prices may decrease; but prices trend higher when demand increases and supply decreases. The housing inventory in the Portland metropolitan area has recently increased slightly from historically low levels, but is still low. More inventory can mean less competition for houses resulting in a market is more neutral or buyer-friendly, but because people who already have mortgages locked in at the historically low rates of 2020-21 may not yet be incentivized to make a move unless we see further decreases, the inventory has remained low, and prices haven’t seen much decline. 

Is the Portland area real estate market cyclical? 

The short answer is yes. Like everything else, the real estate market tends to lull during the holidays, then begin to ramp back up heading into February. This is especially true in Portland, because people generally don’t like to move here in the rainy season. The Portland market generally reaches its peak around April to June, and stays at a higher volume until August, when it gradually tapers down over the next few months. In the summer, you’ll potentially have more competition but more options. In the winter, you will likely have less competition but fewer home options. I would like to note here that while having more choice and looking at pretty gardens is fun, inspecting basements during the rainy season in Portland is an advantage not many consider, and they should. 

So when should I buy?

While everything I explained above is important, at the end of the day the most important questions are very personal: why do YOU want to buy a house, and when does it make sense for YOU? If you currently have a great mortgage and would like to have a bigger house, maybe it’s not the best time financially, but maybe you have a growing family and you need the space. In that case, you need to decide how much it’s worth to you to get the right house for your family. If you are a cash buyer, now might be a great time to buy a house, because you won’t have so much competition, and you might get a great price on a very desirable house. If you’re looking to move out of a rental and into home ownership, and are financially flexible, it also might make sense to buy now. Because so much of it depends on each individual’s situation, consulting a buyer’s agent is key. 

A buyer’s agent can help educate you so you can make the best decision for you and your family. After speaking with a great agent, you should feel more empowered, because you will understand all of these factors better. If the first thing an agent tells you when you speak to them is that it’s a great time to buy a house, without knowing anything about you, you might want to ask them why it’s a great time for you to buy a house, or find another agent. 

 

If you are thinking about buying a house sometime in the future and are not sure whether to act now or wait for a little while, you can always take steps so you can make sure you’re ready when you feel the time is right. Check out my post about all the steps you can take now to be ready to put an offer on a house when it’s time! 

 

Beaumont-Wilshire Charmer

You’ll just love this beautiful 1938, 4 bedroom 3 bath home is loaded with charming, vintage details, many of which are newer, but crafted to match the era of the home. On the main level you have a large, light filled living room with gorgeous period fireplace with gas insert, updated kitchen and bath that were both redone to uphold the wonderful vintage styling of the home and two bedrooms, both with access to the backyard deck and delightful backyard. 

The upper level features the fantastic primary suite with hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings, built ins, skylights and bathroom.

The lower level has access from the main floor or outside which lends to the potential for a lower level ADU. Warm and inviting family or media room, 4th bedroom with egress, laundry facilities and lots of storage. 

The home sits on an oversized 75 x 100 lot which may offer room to build. Comes with an enormous three-car garage with attached garden shed, a lovely fenced backyard with both deck and patio, a rose garden and mature trees. 

Recent updates include, new south side Marvin infinity double hung, lowE2 efficient windows with transferable warranty, new electrical service and panels for both the home (200 amp) and garage (100 amp), attic insulation and new backyard fencing.

The sweet neighborhood is quiet and full of lovely neighbors. It’s situated between the Albert Arts district and up and coming 42nd Ave. And just a short distance from Fremont St and all that has to offer. Plus it’s just short walk to the infamous Kennedy School, Common Grounds and New Seasons grocery. 

The Ins and Outs of a Home Inspection

The home inspection is one of, if not, the most important part of your home purchase.

It is where you will learn the most about the home you are buying, where you will have the most negotiating power, and honestly it is usually the most stressful part of the transaction.

But the more eduction you have up front and the more expectation setting we do the easier it will be and the calmer you will be.

Here are some things to know about the home inspection process:

🛠 The cost:

The general home inspection: $500-700*
Radon test: $120*
Sewer scope: $100 – $150*
Oil tank sweep: $100 – $120*

*Cost can vary by location and provider but this is the average I see.

*Which inspections you perform will depend on the type of home, location and other factors but these are the main inspections I recommend.

🛠 A home inspection is an overview of the homes condition:

A home inspector will be able to give you a great idea of the overall condition of the home, and will be able to pin point key problems, (but keep in mind there are some limitations as inspectors are human after all and don’t have X Ray vision).

🛠 Its a negotiation tool and a future to-do list:

After you receive your inspection report you can use it as a tool to negotiate with the seller and it will also be helpful in determining the future work you will need to do and want to do to the home.

As, and this is an important point, the seller will not correct every single item that comes up on your inspection report (unless you buy a new build home). Because on average there will be 40-70 items on that report, with a varying level of urgency and concern.
When you negotiate repairs with a seller you will want to focus on the top 1-4 health and safety concerns.

The rest of the items will typically be repairs you can do yourself (yay weekend hardware store trips) or ones you will hire out to contractors (which I will give you recommendations for).

Inspections can be an overwhelming part of the process, but that is why I am here as your buyers agent to help you through it all. If you want to meet and talk more about the home buying process reach out via my contact information below.

4 things to do before starting the home buying process

Buying a home in a competitive sellers market can seem intimidating. But with a good deal of preparation, education and the right real estate team to support you, you can be highly successful.

Here are 4 things you should do prior to shopping for homes:

⚫️ Meet with a lender ASAP.

Having an initial conversation with a lender about where you are financially, where you need to go and how to get there will save you so much time and headaches.

If you don’t have a go to lender, your realtor (aka me 🙋🏼‍♀️) can send you a few recommendations.

⚫️ Get really clear on your home wants and communicate them to who ever you may be buying with and with your real estate team.

This will also save you so much time as there is no sense in us looking at homes without a fireplace if a fireplace is a necessity to you.

⚫️ If you are starting the home buying process but don’t plan to buy for a while, look into opening a high yield savings account and put your downpayment funds and other expenses for the purchase in it.

That way you will have a specific place for saving up for your home purchase AND you will make great interest on the money adding to your funds to purchase.

⚫️ Connect with a realtor as soon as possible.

Even if you don’t plan to purchase a home for some time, the earlier you meet with a realtor the more time they have to educate you on the process.

I just met with a couple last week who don’t plan to buy till 2025 this had me excited as we have so much time to talk about the ins and outs of the home buying process, research the types of homes that could best meet there needs, and we can watch the market trends so they are clued into how homes in their area of interest are performing in the market.

If you are wanting to co-create your winning home buying strategy I am here for you. You can find my contact info below. I look forward to talking with you!

Portland Oregon Real Estate Market Update for January 2024

What we discuss:

The Spring Real Estate Market already showing up.

How home buyers can be set up for success in a hot market.

And what opportunities this new market will have for home sellers.

Is the Spring Real Estate Market already here?

It seems like it.

While the data in the graphic above shows low numbers for last month, things have shifted in the last week or two.

Interest rates have already started to go down and it seems like everyone is ready to go back to business as usual now that we all are pretty much recovered from the holiday madness.

With rates making their way down to the mid 6% range (most predict that they should stay in the 6% range and will not go much lower than 5.5% in 2024) many buyers have decided to re-enter or enter the market.

And we are starting to see potential sellers take notice and many are putting their homes on the market now versus waiting for the Spring.

While not everyone is waiting till Spring to make a move, if the activity over the last few weeks is any indicator, we should see a robust real estate market over the next year and certainly in the first half of the year. (We are a bit cautious about predicting high activity in the second half of the year due to the election coming up).

What does this mean if you are thinking of selling? In most cases, you can expect to have motivated buyers ready to buy your home.

However, it is important to note that with our current economy, many buyers are still hesitant when it comes to their spending, so making sure we prep your home well, market it correctly, and price it strategically will be critical.

A good deal of homes are already starting to get multiple offers in today’s market so we will do everything we can to make sure your house is one of those shiny listings everyone wants.

What does this shift in the market mean if you are a home buyer? We will want to be highly strategic in the offers we write and the type of homes we even look at.

If we toured homes in 2023 together the market will be noticeably different. Homes that sat on the market for weeks will now potentially sell in a weekend meaning you will have to make quicker decisions and likely compete with other buyers.

Don’t let this stress you out though. I helped a bunch of buyers (many were first-timers without a lot of cash to throw around) buy homes successfully in the height of the 2021-2022 market and we can do the same for you.

If you want to talk more about your 2024 home buying or selling plans I am here for you. While this market is seeing higher activity overall, different areas/price points/style of homes have their own unique sub-markets, so it’s important that we talk one-on-one about what you can expect based on your own needs.

Reach out and let’s make your real estate dreams come true.

Real Estate Market Forecast for 2024

No one knows for certain what 2024 has in store in the world of real estate. But in the video above we discuss a few widely predicted trends.

Here are a few highlights:

Interest rates are already trending downwards (whoohoo).

With this we are already showing higher motivation from home buyers which will continue to increase.

Hopefully, this means we will also see higher motivation from home sellers (as sellers notice the higher demand from buyers). Leading to more homes and more options to the market.

Meaning we can predict an active Portland Oregon Real Estate Market for most of 2024. We could potentially see the market slow down in the second half of the year, if we follow trends from past election years.

Want to discuss your potential home buying or home selling needs for 2024? I would love to connect. Reach out and we can set up a time.

You can contact me below or reach me at lily@lilyrayres.com.

Adventures in Real Estating: Selling During Covid

This dreamy South Tabor farmhouse of infinite possibilities just sold in the midst of covid panic at $52k over asking with 7 offers in just 3 days.  Many congratulations to my client — all his hard work getting this gem ready for market paid off big time!

Before covid began, we met to discuss how he could best prep his home for the market.  I always recommend scheduling a consult and walk through with your REALTOR® before embarking on home projects. This can save you lots of time and money, as we are able to identify which changes will have the greatest impact on your sale in the current market. In this case, most of the work was focused on the exterior, but inside, fresh white paint and top notch staging brought the house to life in a whole new way!

 

 

 

Here is the living, dining area and kitchen before…

 

 

 

 

 

And after!!

 

 

 

 

 

It was as if the whole house sprang to life! I remember walking through after it was painted and could practically feel the walls beaming and calling out for the next stewards of home.

view from South Tabor

One of the aspects I love most about this home is the SPACE! All kinds of spaces for all kinds of imaginable fun. Outside there is not only a nice sized grassy backyard + side yard perfect for garden beds, but also a hot-tub cabana, big locking bike shed and a carport with storage and workbench. Inside, the 3 bedroom/2 bath home also includes a den and office upstairs while the basement offers a finished bonus room, laundry area and unfinished space for storage or projects. But I think my FAVORITE space is the upstairs bathroom ~ clawfoot tub and Mt. Tabor views? Yes, please!!

 

My seller put a lot of love into creating a lush grassy backyard where an old blank deck lived before and added many sweet details and upgrades to the exterior to boost curb appeal and honor the 1910 vintage of the home.

When the time came to list, we had just hit the 1 month mark into this new covid reality and I offered my best advice on competitive pricing as things were still feeling a bit uncertain in the market of pandemic proportions. Covid protocol for all potential buyers meant current preapproval letters, masks, shoe covers and hand washing at the beginning and ending of each showing. No more than 3 people in the house at a time and 30 minute showings with 15 minute buffers. When the listing went live we had  immediate interest and within 48 hours over 40 showings were scheduled.  Three days later, my seller went pending with a solid offer that beat out 6 others at $52,000 over asking and stellar terms.

Throughout this transaction, both my seller and the agent on the other side were excellent communicators, easy to work with, and at the end of the day everyone wrapped up feeling really happy about the outcome. I am deeply grateful to my client for his ease in trusting my expertise and putting in the time and energy to give his house the best possible outcome in our market.

These are the stories that really light up my spirit: feeling the energy of a home brighten up with a little bit of love and elbow grease ~ the house that calls in its new owner like a match that was meant to be ~ clients’ joys of new beginnings ~ and navigating through unprecedented times with presence, awareness and clear communication. If you are curious about the market in these times, or are looking at buying or selling now or down the road, I am happy to chat over some socially distanced coffee or tea. Let’s connect!

Stay safe out there, be gentle with yourself, and take care of each other ~ we will get through this ❤️

 

 

 

Many Blessings,

Sarah

 

 

Less Stuff, More Life

 

 

That’s what moving from a 2700 SF house to a  1500SF condo in the Pearl is all about.  It’s about walking to everything.  It’s about joining a new community.  It’s about simplifying.

If this sounds like the direction you’d like to see your life go.  Give me a call. We can get ‘er done!

 

Veronica Powell

503.936.3475

Veronica@LivingRoomRE.com

 

 

Never Have I Ever…

Mary Ann came to me as a referral from one of my favorite clients to date, I already knew I would love her based on that. As we toured her home for the pre-listing walk through, I began to jot down my regular notes: take down posters, narrow down decorations, put away unnecessary kitchen counter top appliances, yadda yadda. She was clearly making mental notes as well, and I could see she was up for the challenge. We cruised through her (incredible!) theatre toward her master bedroom, her sweet pup- Phinn, trailing close behind. Mary Ann watched me closely as I peeked into each closet accessing its future. As I reached the master bedroom I saw her grin and mumble “uhhh open that one slowly… I have kind of a shoe thing…”. You guys. I’ve never seen so many shoes in all of my life! Nordstrom has nothing on Mary Ann! She had neatly lined each pair up row after row after row, after row… after row. I closed my gaping mouth, gave her my punch list and prayed to all of the listening shoe Gods. I returned a week later to finalize the listing and almost fell over dead, SHE DID IT! Mary Ann did every single thing I asked! Talk about dream client!! All of the hard work paid off 7 days later when she got her offer and we sailed into a smooth closing. Congratulations Mary Ann! Thank you for trusting me and letting me participate in your move to the next chapter!

Home Town Proud

Small town kids grow up together, and stick together like family; we trust each other and have a bond that lasts a lifetime. David and his family had decided to move back to the Portland/Vancouver area for his his wife’s job and be closer to David’s mother. I am always honored to be chosen as someone’s REALTOR®, it’s an additional bonus when we’ve grown up together. We went back and forth about the difference of Oregon and Washington, the schools each area had to offer their three beautiful boys and the congested commutes to avoid. We looked at many homes, and I do mean many! Soon they had their mind set on Camas, though they knew how competitive the homes were because of location and highly ranked schools. It wasn’t long before I could see them starting to compromise with other areas in Washington. After viewing 6 homes outside of town, I eagerly pushed them back into Camas for our last showing of the day. I knew they were tired, and this home was out of the way.. after all, we had seen this house before so why was I pushing them so hard to go back? The first time we viewed the home, we had already fallen in love with another one that just wasn’t meant to be (thanks a lot bidding war). I had a feeling in my gut to view it again when I was out touring on my own, and decided to put it back on our list. As we all walked in, the feeling of “home” rushed over us. The layout is what David wanted, the master bath and closet were what Sam wanted, and the fenced backyard that peeked over to the friendly neighbors was perfect for the kids. As I handed over the keys on closing day, I glanced over with a nostalgic smile realizing some things never change.. Class clown, David was still at it! Congrats my fellow Pirate! I have no doubt you’ve chosen the perfect home.