Year-to-date and June 2020 Market Stats and Analysis
What a difference three months makes! Back in early April, I was sharing news of the big unknowns in the Portland real estate market due to COVID-19 concerns, as well as the practical disruptions to showing houses and having inspections. While April and the first half of May were fairly quiet, especially compared to a ‘normal’ spring market when those are some of the most active months, the remainder of May, June and the start of July have been incredibly active…much more than normal.
What’s causing this surge of activity?
First, 30-year conventional mortgage rates are at all time lows. Bad real-world news generally has quite positive benefits for mortgage rates, as it causes a shift to more stable investments, like bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which has the effect of depressing rates. This is good news for buyers. Buyers simply have never had more buying power than ever right now.
Second, our housing inventory is at three-year lows. When we talk about housing inventory, it’s the amount of months it would take to sell all available houses for sale, based on current rates of houses going under contract. A traditionally ‘balanced’ market is at least 3-4 months of supply (if not more), with anything less being a seller’s market. We’re currently at 1.5 months of supply — a very strong seller’s market.
This combination of historically low interest rates and very low housing supply is a lesson in the basic economics of supply and demand. The result is a distinct upward pressure on sales prices as competition for these dwindling houses becomes more-and-more fierce. And this has been playing out with nearly every well-priced, quality new listing this summer — minimal days on the market, multiple offers, and winning offers going multiple percentage points over asking price.
Here’s a link to my 2020 Halftime Report for the entire Portland Market — the whole city, every size house at every price point, from January – June 2020. (If we were to run a report just focusing on especially dialed-in, well-maintained homes in attractive neighborhoods, these inventory numbers and price increases would be even more stark and inflated. ) Here are some key takeaways:
- Listings are up 7% from May 2020
- Pending sales up 17.4% from May 2020 (and up 18.5% from June 2019)
- Closed sales up 38% from May 2020
- Average sales price up 2.6% year-to-date
- Median sales price up 3.9% year-to-date
- Inventory: 1.5 months
[One outlier of this month’s report is that total days on market *up* slightly, but I fully expect to see next month’s numbers reflect a much *lower/quicker* time on market.]
I can always dial-in these market stats for ‘your’ market — which is always different and much more specific than what we generally refer to as ‘the’ market. Each of my clients’ ‘markets’ dictate specific and unique strategies, and I’ve been busier than ever this spring and summer helping buyers and sellers craft winning strategies. I truly thrive on helping others succeed, and love the hustle of these busy times.
Stay cool out there, and please let me know how I can help you or someone you know!
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ANDY MEEKS
Living Room Realty
Licensed Oregon Broker
andy@livingroomre.com
971.400.0195
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There are lots of tough, “school of hard knocks” buyer stories out there right now, given the very strong Sellers’ Market we’ve been experiencing since the dawn of 2021. But even in this seller-oriented market, we’ve been able to find success for many of our buyer clients.
